Event Recap: A Conversation with Evan Horowitz
May 12, 2020
State Budget, Test and Trace, and Elections
Thursday, May 7th, 2020 | Zoom Meeting with Evan Horowitz
On Thursday, May 7, President and CEO of A Better City Rick Dimino welcomed Evan Horowitz who is Executive Director of the Center for State Policy Analysis to discuss three consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for Massachusetts. Thirty-three representatives of our members and staff joined in the Zoom session.
STATE BUDGET
Analysis has shown that the rate of growth of the Massachusetts state revenue tracks closely with the United States growth of Gross Domestic Product, Mr. Horowitz said, and making assumptions about the role of other factors is not necessary and needlessly complicates the projections. The GDP and FY 2020 revenue in Massachusetts has declined by 4.8% in the recent quarter. National projections anticipate a 30% economic contraction in the next quarter and a 19% expansion in the future, but there is great uncertainty about future conditions, therapeutic medications, and timing of a possible vaccine as well as response to these conditions. Customarily, April is a high revenue month with larger tax receipts, but it looks like a revenue loss of $750 million for the remainder of this state fiscal year and a $2 to $4 billion shortfall for FY 2021. The scale of federal relief is close to meeting current needs, according to Mr. Horowitz. April tax receipts are about half of what was projected but withholding was 97% of projections.
Mr. Horowitz said that the states will need a federal bailout to cover operating expenses as a next step. If the state takes a hit, he said, local aid to cities and towns is likely to suffer first. The state is in good shape with a $3½ billion rainy day fund, but the only other sources to cover operating expenses are to cut costs or obtain federal aid.
TESTING AND TRACING
Contact tracing worked for SARS and Ebola because these diseases are not contagious with asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people, unlike this coronavirus where the virus can be transmitted for days before the initial infection is discovered. While Massachusetts has begun contact tracing, the state needs 15,000 tests per day (about 10,000 are done now), with a 2% positive rate (it’s 10% now) in order to implement effective tracing. While cities and towns oversee public health operations today, some central coordination would be more effective. In places like Korea, that applied lessons from the SARS epidemic, and where aggressive measures were used for tracing, this tracing has been effective. In the United States, concern for privacy would not support similar aggressive measures. European countries are debating how to implement tracing, and in Massachusetts, less rigorous testing and tracing measures in other New England states could make the strategy less successful in controlling the spread of the virus.
Mr. Horowitz suggested a two-dimensional graph with how essential the service is versus how safe to evaluate which activities could open earlier. The issue of public transit safety was raised, and the reliability of anti-body tests, relative to monitoring participants in summer camps.
ELECTIONS
The impact of the virus at the time of the September 1 statewide primary and the November 3 general election is uncertain at this time, but it is likely than many more people than in the past will want to avoid visiting the polling places and want to vote by mail. There are two different approaches for obtaining and submitting ballots: 1) a two-step process consisting of mailing an application for a ballot to all registered voters, submitting the application to the municipality and receiving a ballot to mail in to vote, or 2) mailing ballots to all registered voters to be submitted if the voter chooses to vote by mail. The first approach takes more time and processing but allows the voting authority to verify the signature on the final ballot against that on the application. Other options are a drive up, curbside voting which may not be practical in a city setting, or a dropbox to collect ballots.
Secretary of State Galvin, whose office oversees voting in the Commonwealth, has said it is too risky to mail unsolicited ballots to all voters, but others feel differently, according to Mr. Horowitz. Whatever choice is made, it needs to be done soon as the state primary is three and one half months away.
